Ever heard of a place called Sutter's Mill, California?

Today, it's an old abandoned saw mill; but at one time it sparked one of the largest mass-immigrations in US history.

In 1848 gold was discovered at Sutter's Mill, thus triggering the 1849 gold rush. Within twelve months over 300,000 people, so-called "49ers", raced to west to make their fortunes. It transformed California from a sleepy backwater, into the center of the world's imagination.

With this history in mind, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that within the next 18 months - another Sutter's Mill-like event is going to happen on the blogosphere that will create a rush that has not been seen for over 157 years.

In the 19th century it was gold. In the 21st, it will be the micropayment.

A micropayment is a very small online money transfer, usually meant to be under a dollar, perhaps as low as a few cents. Currently, micropayments are not feasible for most businesses since credit-card fees eat up most of the profit when processing small transactions.

But, if such a system were possible, it would revolutionize the economics of the blogosphere. It would make supporting online artists and bloggers as painless as buying a gumball at the grocery store.

For example: Imagine if a blogger could ask readers for a .50 cent-a-month contribution. If only 1000 people donated a year, within a few years the blogger would be able to make a living completely independent of editors, a corporation or even advertisers.

Go ahead and think of the implications for a moment. Imagine it: No longer will a life dedicated to art be a luxury for the rich - a whole subculture of activists, musicians, poets and philosophers will be able to plug into a business model that can make them economically self-sustaining.

The micopayment business model has been predicted since the beginning of the World Wide Web, but so far every attempt has failed; even the well-funded BitPass project couldn't hack it after four years.

So why am I optimistic this time?

Because of two stores that came out of Davos, Switzerland at the end of January.

First, was the announcement by YouTube that they plan to start sharing revenue with users who create content. YouTube is owned by Google, so for them to make this move demonstrates that they have figured out a way to pay users small amounts of money, efficiently and economically.

I predict that Google's strategy is to use YouTube as a stealth Beta-project to experiment with a micropayment system.

The second is that Microsoft is going into micropayment business. Yes, they may be evil, but they also have the economic and global infrastructure to pull a micropayment system together.

What we are looking at is two major companies that have decided that micropayments are worthy of investment.

Once the infastructuire is in place, it's just a matter of time for the great blogosphere gold rush to start. I have to admit to being a bit nervous about the coming flood. Bloggers, by and large, are a generous lot. You have to be, since very few people can realistically make a living out here.

But a profitable blogophere may flip the blog ecosystem on its head. Not only would artists and writers start going online in a far more aggressive way, but it would open a whole new world of opportunity for every two-bit plagiarist, spammer and con-artist.

Either way, there is gold in them-thar hills. Best prepare for the prospectors, or get out your own stake while it's still relatively simple.

Read counterpoint here.

Tags: Micropayments - Blogging - YouTube - Microsoft - Gold Rush - 1849 - There is gold in them-thar hills